China’s germanium, gallium ban could cost the US $3.4 billion

Bruno Venditti | November 20, 2024 | 8:04 am News 
Polycrystalline germanium. Credit: Jurii, CC BY 3.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

The US economy could see a $3.4 billion hit if China imposes a total ban on gallium and germanium, according to a new report released by the United States Geological Survey (USGS).

China imposed export licensing controls on mineral commodities containing gallium and germanium in 2023, requiring state approval for all exports and establishing a pathway to progressive export restrictions. 

China supplies 60% of the world’s germanium, used in applications such as fiber optic cables, solar cells, and infrared technology. Prices for the metal hit record highs earlier this year in China due to speculation about potential state buying.

According to the USGS, economic losses in the US would primarily impact the semiconductor device manufacturing industry, accounting for over 40% of the total loss. Additional losses would affect downstream producers reliant on semiconductors.

The agency also projects gallium prices could increase by more than 150% and germanium prices by 26% in the event of a total ban.

“Losing access to critical minerals that constitute a small fraction of the value of products like semiconductors and LEDs can result in billions of dollars in economic losses,” said Nedal Nassar, lead author of the report.

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